The good news is that, as we predicted was likely, the strain has attenuated to become less virulent than before, and it has become quite similar to a normal human flu virus.

Animal flu viruses are potentially deadly because we don’t have any immunity to them, unlike human flu viruses, which are only really variations on a theme that we have seen before.  That is why about half the people who have contracted bird flu have died for example.  Our lungs just melt down in the face of the infection because the body is unable to mount any immune response in sufficient time.

The good news about this is that that is just what they are:  Animal viruses and they are not very good at infecting humans.

Animal viruses can become human viruses if they become good at infecting humans as this swine flu has done.  Fortunately, in order to do so, they have to become more like human viruses, and often that means that they look more like human viruses and our immune systems begin to recognise them

Our current recommendations are for employees to contact their GP or NHS Direct on 0845 4647 if they develop symptoms of flu, and for you to put in place your strategies for business continuity.

The situation is still developing, and no-one knows for certain what will happen for certain.  We currently predict that we are likely to see quite widespread flu, unusual at this time of year.  It may well become somewhat worse than the situation in December when we had a winter flu epidemic.  The reason we can hope it may be limited, is that even though we would normally expect five times more people to get a pandemic than in an epidemic, the warm summer weather helps prevent the virus spreading in the UK.

Although this is technically becoming a pandemic, it is not currently looking like becoming the doomsday pandemic that we have been most worried about.  This virus has become able to transmit like a normal human influenza virus but has lost its virulence.

However, if a high proportion of the population is not exposed to swine flu now, the community will not develop herd immunity and so the problem won’t go away, and may return with a vengeance in the autumn when the weather conditions become more conducive to it spreading.  

In addition, over the summer months, the virus will be constantly changing by random mutation, with those new strains that have a selective advantage becoming established.  In our view it is quite likely to become resistant to Tamiflu and may also become resistant to Relenza, although that is less likely. 

Our greatest concern is that the virus may become more virulent as a result of a mutation.  The odds are against that, but it remains possible.  Mutations are random, and strains with improved transmissibility are likely to be selectively favoured over strains with greater virulence.  This swine flu could still become more virulent, or avian influenza (which remains at WHO phase 3 alert) could become cause a dangerous pandemic.

It is of greater importance than usual to plan staff seasonal influenza vaccine next autumn, since supplies may be reduced and demand increased.

Tamiflu is not currently available for companies to buy to set up pandemic contingency plans because the government has requisitioned all supplies.  However, once this situation has died down, it will be available again, and we would be happy to set up a plan for you at that time.